[转载]重大决策应该基于数据还是您的直觉？

在做出重要决定时，您应该信任自己的直觉，还是在决定之前收集更多信息？有两个要考虑的因素。首先是更多的数据是否实际上可以帮助您选择正确的选项。例如，如果您的公司正在考虑采用新产品的想法，则可以进行市场调查并评估竞争对手的产品-但是这些信息不能保证人们会购买您的产品。在这种情况下，您可能会考虑手头的数据，然后依靠自己的直觉。第二个因素是您所面对问题的背景。如果存在成功的思维模型和方案来进行此类决策，那么使用它们可能是一个好主意。另一方面，如果您想让自己与遵循这些模式的竞争对手区分开来，那么直觉可能就是您的选择。请记住：直觉会利用您已经知道的客观和主观信息-因此，您的直觉在某种程度上取决于数据。

本文摘自劳拉•黄（Laura Huang）的"何时可以信任您的大决策"

英文原文：

Should Big Decisions Be Based on Data or Your Intuition?

When making an important decision, should you trust your gut, or gather more information before deciding? There are two factors to consider. The first is whether more data could actually help you pick the right option. If your company is considering a new product idea, for example, you can do market research and assess your competitor's offerings — but that information won't guarantee that people will buy your product. In a situation like this one, you may consider the data at hand and then rely on your gut. The second factor is the context of the problem you're facing. If successful mental models and schemas exist for this kind of decision, it's probably a good idea to use them. On the other hand, if you're trying to differentiate yourself from competitors who have followed those models, gut instinct may be the way to go. And remember: Intuition draws on the objective and subjective information you already know — so your gut feel is, to some extent, data-driven.

This tip is adapted from "When It's OK to Trust Your Gut on a Big Decision," by Laura Huang